A | From 7 a.m. onward Sunday, ballot boxes in Poland started filling up so fast that spare ones had to be dusted off and more ballots needed to be printed. No one had anticipated such long lines throughout the country.Voting was to end at 9 p.m., but by law, polling stations stayed open to accept all who queued up, and the last one closed at 5 a.m. Monday. Some voters braved the night chill for up to eight hours to cast their vote.This resulted in a record turnout of nearly 74% -- highest voter turnout in Poland since 1919 and even higher than that of the first free elections after the fall of communism in 1989.The high turnout confirmed that millions of Poles agree these parliamentary elections may have been the most decisive in the last three decades. Either they would allow the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party to extend its eight-year hold on power for another four-year term, or they would opt for the return of a liberal democracy.Late poll figures univocally indicate that opposition parties stand a realistic chance to form Poland's next government.The PiS conservatives currently in power took 36% of the vote, but that doesn't translate into a seat majority in parliament, which would allow it to form a Cabinet. Latest polls show they would have 196 deputies in the 460-seat legislature as opposed to 249 seats won by the broad Civic Coalition of opposition parties led by Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council.Sunday's vote was a confrontation of two radically different visions of Poland's future.Conditioned by PiS propaganda that has continually been exploiting fears, PiS supporters claim only that party can secure Poland's sovereignty and protect its interests. The threat of illegal migrants is perhaps the most unifying emotion binding the PiS electorate.Supporters see PiS as their only protector from the alleged dominance of European Union bureaucrats in Brussels and their meddling in Polish affairs.PiS voters turn a blind eye to the fact that the country began to drift toward authoritarian rule, authorities neglect the EU's legal norms and the country continues on a collision course with the Union. Some €36 billion of EU COVID pandemic recovery funds have been frozen in a row over PiS judicial reforms. Many observers believe another PiS term would result in Poland leaving the European Union.Germany, Poland's by far most important trade partner and neighbor, is presented as another source of fear and the country is made out to be an ally of Russia, Poland's greatest foe throughout centuries. But if it's not the threat of German capital buying out Polish industry, then it's the threat of moral decay.In order to appeal to radical voters who accuse the government of extending excessive welfare to Ukrainian refugees, authorities cynically strained relations with Kyiv.PiS voters declare the fear that if the party loses, the next government would take away the generous social benefits PiS guaranteed, such as 14 pensions, child care payments and early retirement.Those who Sunday voted for parties forming the anti-PiS coalition declare they voted for a Poland securely rooted in the European Union.In radio and TV street interviews, they say they want to see Poland mend its strained relations with neighbors, particularly Germany and Ukraine.They do not want to see the Catholic Church influencing state affairs.Sixty-four percent of those polled declare they're in favor of same-sex marriages, and 70% want the new government to liberalize the current strict anti-abortion law.It is uncertain whether Poland's new government will be prepared to meet the more liberal postulates voters expect. The potential ruling coalition's unifying factor is its pro-democratic, pro-EU, anti-PiS stance. Other than that, they often differ in their proposed policies and outlook. They're a broad coalition composed of parties spanning from the far left to liberal conservative.The Civic Coalition's clear victory makes it the only faction in parliament able to constitute Poland's new government. But first, Polish President Andrzej Duda, a PiS nominee, will need to designate a prime minister. Most likely, against the odds, he will name a PiS candidate. That candidate will have little realistic chance of being approved by parliament, and Poland may be faced with many weeks of squabbling and chaos. Constitutionalists predict it may not be until December that Poland gets its new government.。 7月份科技板块整体上出现一波大幅下跌，这是今年以来最大一波调整，这波调整也是对上半年全民追光的一种修正，因为今年上半年对芯片半导体、算力、光模块等科技股追捧得特别极致，甚至出现一些明显的调整征兆。在五六月份全民追光的时候，当时我提出要通过三步走的策略来规避科技股可能大跌的风险。第一步就是坚决去杠杆，一旦加了杠杆，时间就不是你的朋友而是你的敌人了，在7月份大跌中，一些加杠杆的投资者出现了大幅回撤甚至爆仓，教训也非常惨重。第二步我当时建议大家要降半仓，通过仓位的控制来规避风险。第三步就是通过一手科技一手红利资产，从而能够分散押注单一赛道的风险。按照这个策略来部署的投资者，基本上很大程度上规避了7月份科技股的大跌。
B | 今年五一，我第八次到美国奥马哈现场参加巴菲特股东大会，巴菲特对于这次AI泡沫非常警惕。从美国回来之后，我就反复给大家讲要站在离门口最近的地方跳舞，这源于巴菲特对于泡沫的一个精彩比喻。巴菲特认为，一个泡沫的产生就像开了一场舞会，人们喝着香槟跳着舞，没有人愿意提前离场，虽然所有人都知道过了午夜零点以后这一切都会变成老鼠和南瓜，但是很多人仍然心存侥幸，都想着能不能11点50再走，巴菲特幽默地说，很可惜这个房间没有一个钟告诉你现在几点了。这其实反映了很多投资者投资AI科技的心情，担心泡沫破裂、又怕错过机会。
C | 后来我带一部分投资者到华尔街拜访摩根士丹利等金融机构，当时就把这个舞会理论跟摩根士丹利的高管交流，他幽默地说，我们建议客户在离门口最近的地方跳舞。这表明即使在华尔街，投资者对于AI科技泡沫也是比较警惕的，但是又不想错过泡沫带来的巨大回报，一旦泡沫有破裂的迹象，就要及时地减仓，甚至清仓。 7月份芯片等板块大幅下跌，我们看到被称为“华尔街AI科技之王”的一个著名投资人，因为加了4倍的杠杆，450亿美元的资金爆仓，倒在了黎明前。
D | 爆仓之后美股科技股开始大涨，这给我们很大的警示，就是无论你的资金量有多大，只要加了很高的杠杆，在市场下跌的时候就可能会出现泡沫破裂甚至爆仓的风险。还有一些2倍做多、3倍做多科技股的ETF在7月份市场下跌的时候，虽然指数只跌了20%，但是很多这种ETF基金因为加了多倍的杠杆，跌幅高达70%-80%，让很多投资者损失惨重。但是加杠杆会上瘾，即使有这么大的跌幅，仍然有不少资金在加仓，他们试图博弈科技股反弹带来的向上的收益。所以我一直建议大家一定要坚决去杠杆，只要不加杠杆，只要不买退市的股票，理论上你的账户永远都在，也就是说永远死不了，但是一旦加了杠杆就不一定了。 对于7月份这次大跌，我对它的定义就是挤泡沫，因为之前涨幅过大，积累了大量的获利盘，所以在发生下跌的时候就出现恐慌性抛售，甚至有一些杠杆资金要踩踏式卖出，造成7月份的大跌。进入到8月份，行情进入震荡修复阶段，一些抄底资金开始入场，出现了一波反弹的行情，但是反弹之后也是一波三折，在8月中下旬再次出现回调。后市应该会继续震荡修复，再开启新一轮大跌的可能性并不大。我把8月份的震荡调整行情称为是7月份大跌之后的余震，大家不必过于担心，这轮科技行情大概率并未结束，7月份是挤泡沫而不是泡沫破裂。 5月份我从美国参加完巴菲特股东大会回来后，就给大家讲过每天早上起来要先看一下隔夜美股的情况，美股安好便是晴天，如果隔夜美股出现大跌，比如纳指单日跌幅达到5%左右，那么在9点半开盘就要考虑减仓来避险，一旦某一天纳指跌幅达到10%左右，那可能就是真的泡沫破裂了，就要考虑9点半开盘以后清盘，避免科技股跟随下跌。现在美股仍然处于高位震荡，并没有出现泡沫破裂的迹象，纳指整体上还是保持强势，虽然费城半导体指数近期也出现了大幅的回调，但是AI科技的叙事并没有改变，纳指整体上还是维持高位震荡的格局。这轮科技行情有望贯穿整个慢牛，这是我一直以来的判断，从两年前2024年9月24号一揽子稳定市场的政策出台，带来这一轮行情以来，科技行情就贯穿始终。 去年年初我就提出科技六大赛道的观点，现在已经逐步得到市场的验证，包括第一大赛道芯片半导体、第二大赛道算力算法、第三大赛道人形机器人、第四大赛道商业航天、第五大赛道固态电池、第六大赛道创新药。这六大赛道是AI时代先后受益的方向，也是有望轮番表现的方向。其中第一大赛道芯片半导体和第二大赛道算力算法已经迎来了业绩的主升浪，在过去一年多的时间相关板块出现大幅上涨，带来很强的赚钱效应。而经过7月份的大跌之后，泡沫得到了压缩，很多优质的龙头股又跌出了价值，可以重新关注。 6月底建议大家重点关注的创新药也走出了一波强劲上攻的行情，创新药的龙头企业更是创出3年新高。创新药这一波的走强不是简单的反弹，而是逐步地走向反转，主要是受到三重利好的提振。第一重利好是政策利好，5月15日有关部门已经明确对于创新药进行价格保护，在专利期内的创新药不集采，只对成熟的仿制药集采，这打消了投资者的疑虑。
E | 第二重利好是从估值上来看，创新药的估值依然处于历史平均估值之下，很多甚至还是在10%-20%分位数左右，处于比较低的水平。
F | 第三就是公募基金对于医药的配置只有6%+，远低于历史平均的配置比例。我国创新药出海带来了新的机遇，今年上半年全球前10位的BD交易中中国企业占了8席，可以说竞争力还是非常强的，我们具有比较强的研发能力以及工程师红利，研发的成本较低。
G | 近期随着碳酸锂价格的上涨，以及关于固态电池国际准则的出台，储能板块出现一波反弹行情。固态电池用固态电解质替代液态电解质，这样续航里程提升了一倍，而安全性能更高，固态电池解决了爆炸起火的风险，相当于新一代电池技术，可以成为明年的主线。工信部投入60亿专项资金推动固态电池的研发，预计2027年有4000台样车安装固态电池，行驶超过1万公里，这标志着固态电池的量产已经越来越近。 人形机器人方面，近期由于人形机器人第一股上市，在上市首日遭到资金的爆炒，之后的股价接近腰斩，导致整个人形机器人板块出现较大幅度调整，但是这不代表人形机器人未来没有机会，中长期来看人形机器人量产或只是时间问题。所以在人形机器人板块出现比较大回调的时候，其实是一个布局时机，等到未来出现大幅上涨的时候，可以及时地获利了结，因为现在还没有业绩的主升浪出来，股价的波动还是比较大的，还是要适当地做一些波段。 商业航天方面喜报频传，无论是长征10号乙火箭还是朱雀3号火箭都实现了可回收，一个是用网回收了火箭，另外一个是在陆地上回收了火箭。中美都将商业航天作为战略发展的产业进行定位，马斯克旗下的SpaceX上市一度遭到资金的爆炒，虽然后来出现大幅回落，但市值仍然是超过1万亿美元，这给商业航天带来了想象空间。但是由于商业航天目前还没有业绩支撑，所以更多的还是属于概念炒作，利好出来反而成为利好出尽是利空，板块出现下跌，所以商业航天可能是明年可以关注的一个方向。
H | 对于六大赛道的投资可以采取三段论的框架，先是看概念，然后是看订单，最后看业绩，只有这样才能够获得可持续的收益，坚定信心抓住这轮科技牛的机会，是实现较好投资回报的一个关键。 （作者系前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理）新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。责任编辑：宋雅芳。
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